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2013 North Atlantic Hurricane Outlook

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As I post this, Eastern Pacific Hurricane Barbara was making landfall over Mexico and was heading northward with some forecasts suggesting that the remnants of Barbara could move out over the Bay of Campeche during the next couple of days possibly kicking off the first North Atlantic system.

So how will the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season turn out?

Major Hurricane Charley approaching the SW Florida Coast in 2004

Major Hurricane Charley approaching the SW Florida Coast in 2004

The consensus of opinion from several Atlantic Storm predictors is for another well above normal season. The predictions range generally between 15 and18 named storms with 8-12 hurricanes of which, 3-5 will be major hurricanes. Averaging out the results you get 17 named systems, 9 hurricanes, of which 4 will be major.

Abnormally warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures over the past few months will be a source of energy for these storms. The Tropical North Atlantic Index (TNA) continues to be in a warm phase with a pattern similar to 2004, a year where there were 15 named storms with 9 making a US landfall!

A broader measurement of North Atlantic sea surface temperatures is the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation (AMO) which has been in its warm phase for the past 17 years. Also there does not appear any indication of an El Nino event developing. El Nino events tend to increase wind shear and reduce the number of North Atlantic Tropical storms.

According to Philip J. Klotzbach and William M. Gray at the Colorado State University in there most recent update , the best analog years for 2013 are 1915, 1952, 1966, 1996 and 2004. During theses years the storm tracks appear to have had a more westward track with most storms turning northward west of Bermuda and many (21 of 52 or 40%) making a US landfall. If the outlooks hold true than of the 17 expected named systems, about 6-7 could make landfall in the US this year.

Active 2004 Hurricane Season

Active 2004 Hurricane Season Image NOAA NHC

Also, if the 2004 year is any example then the Gulf Coast, Florida and the US East Coast will have more than their share of tropical systems.

NOAA NHC Historical Tracks for the analog years:  1915 1952 1966 1996 2004

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